What a delightful year for software. One year ago chat and creative tools worked best - powerful, but hard to see how exactly these things would transform the real world economy. Now, thanks to reasoning models, we see coding agents and really everything in B2B apps working (legal, accounting, finance etc). It’s hard to imagine O1 was sept 24 and deepseek was last dec. In retrospect they were as important as ChatGPT itself. I am not sure what comes next but even if model progress halted today (it won’t) we’d have a decade of deploying this technology to the economy. This is what it feels like to ride the exponential. The best days are yet to come, now and forever. ❤️🔥💪🏽

Europeans w/ unlimited PTO take 4 more days off per year compared to those with fixed time off. The difference is negligible in US & Canada. Really cool insights for how a global company should structure benefits.

I’ve been staring at our favorite chart lately and wondering if we can make a bottoms up case for making the expensive stuff cheaper (healthcare + education). And I don’t mean just sub-inflation growth in prices - I mean decreasing prices. Anyways I tortured the gpt-5.2-pro model a bit with a few assumptions: - widespread GLP1 usage’s direct and indirect impact on healthcare spend - increasing student / administrator ratios in education - AI driving significant gains in productivity for white collar work, with dramatic gains in areas that are purely administrative (phone calls, document processing, RCM etc) And a constraint: - assume all the market forces assumptions play out (ai / glp 1s etc) but the market structure changes won’t happen So here is what you have to believe to get the very exciting new chart; the goals are 1.6%/yr price decline in healthcare and 1.8%/yr in education, compounded: Healthcare gates 1.Admin automation must be deep: on the order of ~40%+ reduction in the effective admin-cost bucket (which is plausibly 25–40%+ of hospital cost). 2.GLP‑1–driven weight loss produces meaningful reductions in downstream spending (e.g., studies associate 10–15% BMI reductions with ~15–22% lower annual spending in relevant cohorts), and adoption is high amongst the costly populations. 3.Pass-through happens despite no site-neutral reform: i.e., competition/payer pressure forces these cost declines into lower negotiated prices rather than purely higher margins. Education gates 1.The “support/admin” share (often ~35–50% in the Delta Cost function categories) must be cut by roughly 40–50% per student. 2.Instruction must see single‑digit to low‑double‑digit productivity gains without torpedoing outcomes. 3.Savings must translate to lower tuition, not just expanded services or cross-subsidies (this is where enrollment pressure and alternative credentials matter). I’ll let you all decide how achievable you think this stuff is, but nothing seems outlandish … Here is the ChatGPT conversation if you’re curious: Here is the result if we do manage to stick the landing: