Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today 1. Iran is a mountain & desert fortress

This means that, despite the defense provided by the mountains in history, Persia (former name for Iran) was invaded dozens of times. But only 2 invasion paths were consistently successful • 5 from Khuzestan in the southwest • 7 from the desertic steppes in the northeast

In temperate areas like Europe, the US, or Argentina, ppl live in plains, ideal for cheap transportation, and thus trade and wealth generation Iran is too hot for that, so ppl live in valleys nearby mountains—which gather moisture from the wind

You can see how the rains are concentrated in the tallest mountains in the west and north The result is that ppl live in mountains, which makes transportation and infrastructure very expensive, so trade is lower, and the country is poorer

OK now imagine you're a Persian leader, safe in your mountains. What would you invade? East: more deserts and mountains (Afghanistan & Pakistan), only good as a buffer Northeast: steppes without agriculture Northwest: mountains South: mountains & the sea But to the west...

Mesopotamia is so flat because the weight of the Zagros & Anatolia Mountains push land down Rivers follow that path (like the Indus & Ganges to the east) And make one of the most fertile lands on Earth This is why, over history, Persian expansion tended to be in this direction

So here you have some of the most important aspects to understand Iran: • In a highway, invaded many times, it's very wary of foreign invaders • It feels safe from invasions, perched in its mountains • These mountains also make it poor though • And ethnically diverse

• Which begets a strong oppressive authoritarian state All this tells you Iran's main priorities: 1. Secure borders against foreign powers, especially Khuzestan 2. Keep internal unity 3. Freedom from foreign influence 4. Trade oil 5. Project power towards the Med

Of those, it has achieved 1 and 2, it's been fighting to achieve 3 since the 1979 Revolution, has suffered in 4 because of that, and has attempted 5 but failed, mainly because of Israel What does that say about the current war?

1. Neither the US nor Israel will ever invade Iran. All 3 countries know this. This war will be limited to air fights and special operations. 2. The regime can fall because it's been oppressive for decades, ppl are poor, and there's lots of ethnic diversity