Some thoughts going into Q4: If we close green today on risk across the board after the intraday whipsaw yesterday, I think that helps carry momentum through to FOMC next week (and likely a little bit beyond) There’s little Powell can say that would be more dovish than the curve is already pricing without it veering into panicky territory imo Unlike other recent meetings where I’ve noted the asymmetry was in anticipating dovishness relative to consensus expectations, I think there is asymmetry here in the other direction (neutral, data dependent etc. = hawkish relative to consensus — precisely the inverse of Jackson Hole) I think in either case, the short-term trajectory from Opex into early-mid Oct is likely bearish — and if I’m right we should see sentiment turn sharply positive and positioning get stretched across the next ~10-14 days (this is where you could sell into that late optimism and buy back when we get some sort of capitulation) I don’t think the *immediate* aftermath of FOMC next week will be bearish unless Powell gives the impression of a deep-set panic, which I think is a very low probability — instead, we likely keep running for a few days to trap late longs and ‘sell the news-oors’ before a combination of local frothiness, buyback blackout and liquidity headwinds cause some havoc This in turn would absolutely feed into some crypto-native narratives like the altcoin ETF deadlines in October and the 4-year cycle — this is where I think many get whipsawed and sidelined as the confluence of ‘sell the news’ narratives is going to be very strong during a window of weakness Approval of altcoin ETFs going into a strong seasonal period with improving *forward* indicators for the business cycle and real rates continuing to trend lower is where we get the classical euphoria start to creep in, maybe late Oct onwards — when everyone is congratulating themselves for having sold the cycle top (for the 16356th time this cycle)