ルビコン川を渡り、文字通り誰もが取引しているため、誰もが取引しているという、誰もが取引しているという奇妙な時期が来るでしょう

About a year ago I saw a post of Jensen signing a woman’s chest that was framed as a “top signal” for NVDA from someone on this app. Since then the stock has climbed another 52 percent. In the investing world, people share anecdotes like this half jokingly as sentiment checks, a way of gauging where we are in the cycle. We have all heard the classics: the shoeshiner giving stock tips or the stripper with multiple brokerage accounts. Because these stories lined up with past market peaks, many hold onto them as if they are timeless signals. The problem is that markets adapt. Once a behavioral pattern becomes widely known, it stops being useful. Economies change and the way they function adapt over time. Today’s anecdotes are not broadly visible in the same way, and they are not the catalyst that will drive the next downturn. Searching for the same anecdotes that worked decades ago can cause you to miss what is actually shaping markets today. It is all fun and games to point out these behavioral anecdotes, until you realize that the one-dimensional way of thinking behind them has become the newest anecdote itself.